No-deal Brexit: A survivalist’s tips on stockpiling food in case of a No-deal. This article is not about whether or not the UK will leave the European Union. That question has already been answered. This article is about the potential impact a No-deal could have on the availability of foodstuffs in the UK. If you are worried about the future of your food supply and are thinking of making preparations for a worst-case scenario, then read on.
When the UK leaves the European Union, it will most probably trigger a reaction in the farming sector. Most farmers would lose out as tariffs are eliminated, but some would do very well. The problem for the rest of us is the effect it would have on the prices we pay for our groceries.
The first area, a breakdown in agriculture would affect is the food industry. With so much importance placed on the supply of modern farming methods, the agricultural trade will be badly affected. Modern farming methods are mostly based on chemicals – meaning that any loss of investment in those chemicals could wreak havoc on the market. Chemical inputs have become an important part of the agricultural industry in recent years, and if they were to be discontinued, prices would soar.
Other areas which rely on the food supply will be hit hard too. The dairy industry would face a complete collapse if exports dried up. Farmers will have to increase imports of milk and cheese – causing the price to rise sharply. The supermarkets could also suffer a loss, with the rising costs of produce causing higher rent and stocking prices.
Fishing is another key area where the potential impact could be felt. With Britain leaving the EU, there is a good chance that the UK will end up taking back control of its borders. It is easy to imagine that fish farmers will be forced to buy British supplies from other European nations – leading to a rise in the import tariffs. Britain will lose out in the deal, with other European countries gaining access to the EU’s fishing waters.
Cars are perhaps the most obvious product to be affected by the No-deal Brexxit. Cars make up over a fifth of the UK’s annual car sales. They are used everywhere in the country, especially by the younger generation who use them every day. Without access to the EU’s Single Market, any barriers to imported cars could mean a slump in demand, rising the cost of the car for the consumer.
The dairy industry is also in great danger. There is a danger that farmers could leave the UK, causing a sudden crisis in the dairy market. Milk is produced by local farms and is consumed by all sectors of society. A large proportion of farm production comes from the dairy sector – causing a huge imbalance in demand and supply.
All in all, the ramifications of a No-dealbrexit are significant. If there was to be a sudden breakdown in the relationship between the EU and the United Kingdom, it would cause immense damage to the UK food supply. The British public would pay the price. With uncertainty around the corner, it is vital that the Government finds a way to soften the blow of a No-dealbrexit and get the country back on the path to a sustainable economic recovery.
Currently, farmers feel the impact of a No-dealbrexit too weakly. Farmers have suffered a loss of up to 3 million pounds due to the vote. They are worried about the effect of the Leave vote on the availability of dairy, the market for beef, the value of strawberries and the potential decline in exports. This uncertainty has scared off investment in the farming sector, with many farmers being forced to look at making up the losses through foreign trade.
Foreign markets offer the chance to source to new markets where demand and supply are greater. It would not be easy for the UK Government to negotiate a deal in the context of a No-deal Brexiting. The impact on the UK economy would be vast, and it is unlikely that the UK would be able to regain its pre-referendum growth rate. These facts do not augur well for the Remain camp.
The worst case scenario for a No-deal Brexiting is a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Could this happen? The possibility of a hard border has been raised by the Irish government in light of the recent developments in the Irish border. If this happened, could the Irish government trigger a border poll in the context of a No Deal Brexiting? If it did, the impact on Northern Ireland would be enormous, and there may be a potential constitutional crisis.