Across the United States, warning signs of violence are in the air. On social media, in the news and even in entertainment, it’s inevitable. Although some of the atrocities have been toned down – curiously after the election. For many months of this crazy year, we were inundated with rumors of a second civil war, and people on both sides waited nonchalantly and warned of this inevitable reality.
The divisive political climate, summer riots, pre-election anger, and protests against various kinds of perceived injustice seem to underscore how divided we can be with our neighbors. I’ve seen many YouTube survivors and prepper podcasters talk about their fears of a second civil war, but I’ll admit we’re a long way from a second civil war. And to be more precise, there is nothing even remotely comparable to the American Civil War.
You may think I’m completely crazy for saying this. I admit that it is hard to ignore the absolute hatred and anger that is present in key parts of our culture right now, but I can give you my reasons. First, let’s list a few facts about the American Civil War to put them in context. I realize that everything I present here can be debated to death, so I will limit myself to the least controversial points that I hope we can all agree on.
The American Civil War
- Mortality ~$620,000
- Duration – 4 years
- Parties – Northern States (Union) and Southern States (Confederation)
- Reasons – Confederate secret to form own government.
Again, the causes and details of the Civil War are an argument we’ve had since 1865, but using this event in our history as the basis for saying we’re headed for a second, equally horrific event: a second Civil War, is misleading and just a bit hysterical.
What do you mean by the Second Civil War?
When I hear the term second civil war, it’s usually in the context of people pushing the porn of fear. It takes different forms, but mostly the Second Civil War is either a race war, where blacks and whites kill each other, or a kind of class war, where the poorest (the middle class) rise up and attack the rich. Another flavor is Democrats versus Republicans to right the wrongs of the election. Or the socialists who want to overthrow this country against the capitalist patriots.
Are the riots a sign of an impending second civil war? There is no reason to fear a second civil war 5.
I don’t see any of those scenarios. At least not without something catastrophic happening first. But before I get to the heart of the matter, let me give you my reasons why I don’t think you need to worry about a second civil war. And all these prophetic voices telling you to worry about it probably deserve further study before you throw yourself into the big bath.
No identifiable components
During the American Civil War of the 1860s, it was fairly easy to know who one was fighting for and against. There were those who fought for the North with the South and vice versa, but it was the states that voted for the action, and if you were accepted into the force, you would get the proper uniform color and fall in line.
In our current culture, there is no North and South. They don’t even have issues strong enough to incite (a significant number of) people to kill, which is somehow necessary for a war. You can’t call a protest or even an uprising a war. When people go home in the morning to take a nap or go to work, there is no war.
Yes, there are groups like the BLM and Antifa, but there is nothing close to the numbers needed for military violence. Not when there are nearly 400 million guns in the United States.
Adults don’t buy it
Are there any problems? Yes. Is the anger justified? Sometimes a lot. Doing bad things that shouldn’t have happened? Yes, but that’s nothing new since the beginning of time. Do we go to war every time we need to solve a cultural problem?
In most situations, I have seen that under the influence of these protests, there are different aspects that reasonable people can look at and see through the fog of shouting and violence to form their own opinions about the legitimacy of the riots. At the very least, the facts should prompt someone to look for other answers before deciding to set the building on fire.
Do I believe that everyone who was killed was innocent? I don’t think so. But the reverse is also true. The vast majority of the time, if a police officer shoots at you, you’ve done something wrong. Are there tragic exceptions? Yes. But these are the exceptions. Should you protest and demand to be heard if you feel something is unfair? Of course, and our Constitution even protects that right.
But people forget that you have the right to assemble peacefully. When your methods of handling complaints begin to ruin innocent lives, you lose credibility and empathy.
Personal economy is more important than ideology
A second civil war is not something you can talk about when you are 6 years old.
A second civil war on the scale of last time would devastate our economy and, to put it simply, make it difficult for people to make a living. Do you really think there could be an all-out war here in America, where Internet access is considered a right?
Do you think people would protest the war they are fighting in if they didn’t get enough money or if their boots weren’t brand new? Would they fight if they couldn’t be addressed by their favorite pronoun? Would they still be involved if there was no balance between their professional and personal lives?
Consider the number of people who stayed away during Covid because they could make more money with unemployment. Is that the same fortitude as attacking the hill with a hail of bullets?
Riots and protests are rare and short-lived
The civil war lasted 4 years and has changed, but most protests wear off in a few days at most. Of course there are exceptions, but I don’t see the energy of a second civil war that would last long enough to have anything resembling a real war. In fact, people complain about tear gas and rubber bullets at these demonstrations. They get offended when one of their numbers breaks.
What would they do if 50 of them were shot in one incident? Who would they complain to if there were no media to directly tell their horrific personal stories of human rights violations?
race problems are not that serious – always
I’m sure some of you will think me naive, but I don’t think this country is systematically racist, and I don’t think most African-Americans think they have no choice but to go to war.
For our country to be systematically racist, by definition there must be systems (laws) that treat African Americans differently – negatively. If you can show me those current laws, please do.
Have we had an unfair and discriminatory past? Absolutely, what country doesn’t have that? Are there still people who are racist? On both sides of course – and I think that will always be the case. Are some people neglected because of their race? Yes, of course.
However, our country is not racist. Our laws that affect your freedoms, your ability to get a job, to make money, to marry, to buy property, to enjoy life, are not written to give an advantage or disadvantage to any race. Systematically we are racially neutral, but people are always influencing others.
I think we have some work to do on the racing front, but it’s a matter of the heart. You can’t change someone’s mind by arguing with them or yelling at them, just look at the comments under any social media post. I also don’t think most people think this country is so broken that we should go to war to fix it.
Or that we should kill everyone who disagrees with us because it’s so bad.
In a civil war, you would face the military.
Yes, if there was a threat of war, the military would be called in, and I don’t think that’s a fair fight. Is there a navy or an air force on your side? Yes, battle has defeated armies since the beginning of time, but for that to happen here, we would have to go far and suffer many deaths.
Going back to my previous statement about the riots – if the military comes to your demonstration and is willing to take real action, I’m sure those idiots with hoods and gas masks will move their asses quickly. But the military will also be in conflict, as you say? So half our army will fight the other half? Come on! It is the theme of a very good Ecclesiastes fiction.
And the army will also be divided.
In any kind of national uprising that would affect the entire country, you would have people on both sides in the military, philosophically speaking. But just to be sure, they wouldn’t be surrounded by a government group of only like-minded people. The military has all kinds of backgrounds and perspectives, and they are all mixed up together, fighting for the military’s goal. Not human.
First, I don’t see that the military has a problem killing its own citizens. Their families and loved ones. And there would probably be zillions of ex-soldiers (with real war experience) and veterans who would probably feel the same way.
Individual firearms do not travel
There were a few monsters trying to put their ideas into practice. The people who tried to kidnap the governor of Michigan would have wanted to start a second civil war. These aren’t the guys who move half the country. How can you fight a war without a crowd of people behind you?
If the local police can eliminate you, don’t expect to win the war, do you?
Many people do not have the chance to die or be in need
As I write this, 307,000 people have died from Covid in the United States. This tragic figure is that of a disease. In dealing with the effects of this disease, we have shut down much of our economy. At least we had an incentive to give people money to make up for the job losses. We have closed borders, prevented people from attending funerals, going to church, and so on.
By a disease with a 98% survival rate.
I was walking through the national forests without a mask and people were walking on the other side of the road, covering their faces and looking away for fear that I might infect them. It is located in the middle of thousands of acres of fresh air. Can you imagine the paralyzing fear that the prospect of armed conflict, of war, would provoke in a large part of the population? I expect most of the United States to put on their masks and close their doors to pray that war doesn’t come to their doorstep.
No, I don’t think we’re about to start a second civil war, because I don’t think this country has the courage to face something as horrible as an internal war at this time. Can that change under the right circumstances? Yes, but that is not yet the case, and I think we would be much worse off for thinking about it.
But I think it’s a really positive sign for our nation. We should not prepare for a war over such cultural issues. We should be able to overcome our problems and disagreements in a more civilized way. We should even be uncivilized and still not want to hurt anyone.
And what does that mean to you?
I think discussions of any topic, like the Second Civil War, fall into the category of serious reflection on why you are preparing in the first place. To me, it carries the same weight as an invasion of a foreign country or a massive meteorite impact. Is all this possible? Sure, but what’s more likely to happen to you, a giant meteor or a power outage due to a winter storm?
See why you are preparing and assess what is likely to happen. Let this basic idea guide you in your planning and preparation. But do it while making sure you take steps to protect your family.
I’m not worried about a second civil war coming to your town.
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